EU Referendum – What now?

Brexit – What does it mean for my investments?

Following last week’s EU Referendum vote, there is a high level of uncertainty over what this will mean for the country on many levels.

To attempt to calm market fears, there have been statements made from the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney and this morning from George Osbourne.

At this time there is no clear understanding what leaving the EU will mean for investing in short term, but I believe that the long term nature of our investment philosophy and approach would recommend that although these are uncharted waters, staying in your investment seat at this time is the correct approach.

I work closely with Dimensional Fund Advisers and I share an extract from their newsletter which
better puts in to context our current situation:

“Dimensional has nearly 35 years of experience managing portfolios, including during periods of uncertainty and heightened volatility. We monitor market events—including their impact on trading and trade settlement—very closely and consider the implications of new information as it comes to light. We are paying close attention to market mechanisms and they appear to be functioning well. Our investment philosophy and process have withstood many trying times and we remain committed.

We urge caution in allowing market movements to impact long-term asset allocation. Long-term investors recognize that risks and uncertainty are ever present in markets. A drop in prices is generally due to lower expectations of cash flows, higher discount rates, or both. In some cases, a drop is also due to investors demanding liquidity. In the current situation, some investors and economists may expect lower cash flows due to possible trade barriers that may not be implemented. Higher discount rates may be occurring due to uncertainty about changes in the economic landscape and regulations. We have seen markets increase discount rates in times of uncertainty before, resulting in lower prices and increased expected returns. However, it is difficult to know when good outcomes will materialize in the future. By attempting to time the right moment to invest or redeem, one risks not enjoying the potential benefits of such materialisations. Many of those who exit the markets miss the recoveries. What we have often seen in the past is that investors who remained in well-diversified portfolios were rewarded over time.”

I appreciate you will have questions as to how this event may impact your own financial situation and I’d be happy to hear from you at anytime to discuss this further.

Please either phone me or email to get in touch.

We will provide further information as and when things become more clear.

Roland Oliver

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Ethical investing: How to do it

When it comes to investing, keeping an open mind about new opportunities, new approaches and seeing new trends are all valuable things to be able to do.

There is a growing public demand for businesses that they deal with to act in a socially responsible manner.

It’s clear that public sentiment towards companies that appear to flaunt the law, act in their own self-interest is strengthening. Companies like Amazon and Starbucks, whose tax strategies are deemed less than moral, can lose customer confidence.

Continue reading “Ethical investing: How to do it”

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World Market Capitalisation

Viewing the world map by relative market capitalisation illustrates the importance of building a globally diversified portfolio and avoiding a home market bias.

This cartogram, produced by Dimensional Fund Advisors, depicts the world not according to land mass, but by the size of each country’s stock market relative to the world’s total market value (free-float adjusted).

Population, gross domestic product, exports, and other economic measures may influence where people invest. But the map offers a different way to view the universe of equity investment opportunities. If markets are efficient, global capital will migrate to destinations offering the most attractive risk-adjusted expected returns. Therefore, the relative size and growth of markets may help in assessing the political, economic, and financial forces at work in countries.

The cartogram brings into sharp relief the investible opportunity of each country relative to the world. It avoids distortions that may be created or implied by attention to economic or fundamental statistics, such as population, consumption, trade balances or GDP.

By focusing on an investment metric rather than on economic reports, the chart further reinforces the need for a disciplined, strategic approach to global asset allocation. Of course, the investment world is in motion, and these proportions will change over time as capital flows to markets offering the most attractive returns.

MS

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What would you do with £381m?

The news over the past day has informed us of the largest ever undivided lottery win the United States of $590m (£381m), going to an 84-year old widow.dollars

Talk of the lottery is nearly always accompanied by a discussion of what you would do with the winnings…

But after you have stopped considering how to furnish the gatehouse, it is worth remembering that it doesn’t have to be a massive lottery win for your money to require due consideration.

Using our cash flow modelling tool, Voyant, we can create a wide variety of what if scenarios that project forward how different choices today can affect your financial outlook tomorrow.

Assets detailed for websiteWe can enter in information such as your incomes, expenses, assets and liabilities and model forward projections, such as those seen on the right.

Being at the age Gloria, the 84 year old jackpot winner, is she chose to take her winnings as a lump sum rather than 30 annual payments of £12m. Taking it in this manner reduced the sum to £240million.

This type of situation is similar to those faced by retirees and those made redundant every day as they must decide how best to take their benefits. This is exactly the situation where cash flow modelling can shine.

lotterywinCombining this with expert advice that guides you through an all encompassing view of your current circumstances, maybe you can generate some of your own luck.

Of course, if you are feeling lucky, we can even model a scenario where you win big…

 

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It won’t get better if you pick it

Anyone with teenage kids will be familiar with the headline above; stop picking, scratching, fiddling and generally messing about otherwise it will never heal up!

Time for a tenuous link – “What’s investing got to do with pubescence and hormones?” I hear you cry…

Well, as passive strategy investors, the idea of getting the appropriate risk-rated asset allocation right, keeping costs low and maintaining discipline is at the heart of our philosophy.

We picked up a new follower on Twitter today (for which I’m grateful) and for reasons which should become apparent, I won’t mention their name…

In essence it was (yet) another business offering guidance to my business on how to create investment strategies for clients that I think were based around “over 20 years of experience” and some very fancy software designed to spot/recognise trends/sectors that should be the best performing etc etc.

Their website makes some bold claims and some interesting references to Warren Buffet but overall I was confused as to what the point was.

All in all it seemed like another company trying to prove that by using their methodology, philosophy and gee-whiz technobabble, you can get better results from you investments.

I suggest doing less and trusting to more simple understandings will work far better.

taoismThe Chinese philosophy of Taosim has a word for it: “Wuwei”. It literally means “non-doing”. In other words, the busier we are with our long-term investments and the more we tinker, the less likely we are to get good results.

That doesn’t mean, by the way, that we should do nothing whatsoever. But it does mean that the culture of “busyness” and chasing returns promoted by much of the financial services industry and media can work against our interests.

Investment is one area where constant activity and a sense of control are not well correlated. Look at the person who is forever monitoring his portfolio, who fitfully watches business TV or who sits up at night looking for share tips on social media.

In Taoism, by contrast, the student is taught to let go of factors over which he has no control and instead go with the flow. When you plant a tree, you choose a sunny spot with good soil and water. Apart from regular pruning, you leave the tree to grow.

So we can’t control movements in the market. We can’t control news. We have no say over the headlines that threaten to distract us.

But each of us can control how much risk we take. We can diversify those risks across different assets, companies, sectors and countries. We do have a say in the fees we pay. We can influence transaction costs. And we can exercise discipline when our emotional impulses threaten to blow us off course.

I think I may have finally got my point across; to get a better investment experience, talk to us about our investment approach and don’t pick at your current one in the meantime!

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Changing the Weather

That’s it.

I’ve had about as much as I can stand of the Scottish Spring weather. Grey, overcast, wet, windy, freezing, sunny, & generally miserable.

With damp patches.

No amount of positive mental attitude will change the weather but a wee bit of planning might change where the weather I’m exposed to comes from…

It’s been very noticeable of late that the new enquires we have been getting are less concerned with the true nitty-gritty of what my pension/ISA/savings actually are but much more around the use of lifetime cash flow modelling to show me what’s going to happen.

The term peace of mind is often used in conversations with new clients and it’s very interesting that successful, well paid business men & women drive on without a real understanding of what their numbers actually might mean for them.

In other words, they have no peace of mind but rather a nagging doubt that it might not just be enough.

Using a complex powerful cash flow modelling tool like Voyant provides the framework to allow a little dreaming to take place and it’s a tremendous feeling to see people starting believe they might just be there financially or with a bit of further guidance they can get the life they want.

clear skiesOur job is then to become custodian of the wealth, provide sensible investment strategies and use the tax advantages of various “wrappers” to keep the clients in the style to which they’d like to become accustomed!

Malcolm Stewart will be expanding on the details on how, what and why lifetime cash flow modelling is so powerful in his next blog.

In the meantime, as I write the temperature in Sacramento, California is a sunny 33c.

Call me to arrange your retirement in a country and climate of your choosing.

Roland Oliver

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