Predicting what may happen to companies, economies and the World at large is at the core of active fund management process.
As you’ll know if you’ve read my previous posts, that I very much believe in the passive approach to investment management as I think it’s incredibly difficult to predict what might happen in any given situation.
In Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Nicholas Taleb eloquently lays out how the hidden chance in the markets has and will continue to catch out the most intelligent of our investment professionals.
Its a must read for anyone giving investment advice regardless of your current stand point.
Whilst I’m dropping names here, Donald Rumsfeld the former Secretary of Defense in the USA, once talked about the “unknown unknowns” and it made me think of all the random events of late that have happened that fall into this category.
So to a little Friday sport that I’d like to call “who would have predicted…”
I give a few easy ones for starters and then let’s see what you can come up with…
Roland Oliver
Who would have predicted:
- The News of the World would be shut last weekend
- Lehman Brother would have collapsed
- Woolworths would no longer be on our High Streets
- Edinburgh Council would continue with the tram project…
Over to you.