WEEKLY COVID-19 UPDATE

Background

They say a week is a long time in politics and that maybe true, but a week cooped-up in your house goes by very rapidly!

I hope that everyone is well and coping with the huge change in circumstances.

Following on from last week’s update I wanted to share a few things that I notice and picked up during the week from both business point of view and from a personal standpoint.

Earlier on the week, I attended a webinar that was set up by my accountant Chris Thomas and an HR consultant, Ian Pilbeam.

It was a very informative and in-depth look at the government’s response to the coronavirus situation and in particular the job retention scheme and the new business grant scheme.

It struck me that the government has acted quickly, and the amount and detail produced in such a short time was quite incredible. It was also clear that there are many hoops to jump through in order to obtain much needed money to keep businesses afloat.

If anyone would like more information on these subjects, please give me a call on my usual number.

I’m also very pleased and delighted at the speed on which my local village and community have acted to get together and create various WhatsApp groups – there has been great deal of sharing of ideas, services and help for each other – even puzzles and jokes!

It’s nice to see people coming together in this difficult time.

Information is Beautiful

I picked this graph up on my travels this week and thought it was I’m very good visual representation of where we are with COVID-19 right now.

I previously posted this in LinkedIn and thought it was worth including again here not to scare people, but to take the positives from the recoveries and the number of people who are classed as having it in a mild form.

I also referenced the Stockdale Paradox in another LinkedIn post and again I attach the link to this to as I think it is most relevant today.

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/

https://lnkd.in/eNi26zX

The Great Jigsaw Update

I was pleased by the many responses I got around progress on the World’s hardest jigsaw last week, so here’s this weeks update…

Firstly, my daughter has totally lost interest in favour of something called Instagram. Can’t think why, and secondly, I was reduced to using a mallet to try and hammer vaguely matching pieces together to alleviate my frustrations!

Anyway, here’s progress of sorts.

 

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Weekly Covid-19 Update

Background

Firstly I hope that everyone is safe and well and coping with our new circumstances.  As I write, we have two clients having tested positive, and are a good way into their self-isolation phase.

I’ve spoken to them by phone and are clearly are not well, but are making some progress. Our thoughts are with them.

I thought that I’d try and do a weekly round-up of current thoughts, observations and try to maintain some reality in an otherwise surreal existence for us all.

From a practical point of view, using Zoom as a remote meeting tool has proven easy to use and successful in allowing us to have conversations “face-to-face” and allow us to review cash flow models in light of current volatile market conditions.

I’m getting positive feedback about the format and clients are expressing that looking at their numbers in context and over the longer term is reassuring.

Please call the office on 0131 273 5202 if you’d like to schedule a meeting.

 

Market Volatility

Although the UK market (FTSE100) is down around 5% today as I write, it looks like it will end up marginally ahead of where we started at the beginning of the week.

We should now be beginning to understand that the wild swings in daily volatility will be the norm. We see markets reacting as we would expect them to on the current understanding of our economic prospects based on the information we have at any given time.

It reinforces our long-held belief that you must remain fully invested throughout these periods of uncertainty, and to trying to time markets is not only futile, but ultimately damaging to long term returns.

We’ll continue to post information about long-term investing and our investment philosophy in the coming weeks.

 

Client Portal (PFP)

Given the difficulties and risk about post and handling paper documents right now, we’d like to urge our clients to sign-up for our Client Portal on our back-office system to allow the exchange of documentation safely and electronically.

Please email nikki@oliverassetmgmt.co.uk and request an invite to join the client portal.

 

Personal Thoughts

I very glad to have my daughter home from London and staying with me and due to strict observation on social distancing, I’m happy to report we haven’t fallen out or attacked each other yet…

I had my first experience of social distancing too at my local Tesco this week, and was struck as to how incredibly quickly we adapt to the new circumstances. People seemed calm and rational and sticking to the limits on purchasing. Let’s hope we stay that way.

Finally, I bought what would seem to be the hardest 1000-piece jigsaw in the World. This a pictorial record of the progress we’ve made (me and my 25-year old daughter) in a week.

To be continued

Be safe and well

Roland

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Zoom Meetings

As previously posted, the office is currently closed, much like everywhere else in the country…

We are still however very much open for continued dialogue with all clients and contacts.

We have set up remote working, and are able to fully utilise video conferencing to allow us to conduct review meetings, and discuss any ongoing financial issues.

To set up a zoom meeting please email: nikki@oliverassetmgmt.co.uk

Although we wont be able to offer you a coffee, we will be able to offer the same service as you have come to expect with a full visual cashflow model, which should hopefully add more reassurance as we go through this tough period.

We look forward to speaking with you soon

Jonathan, Roland and Nikki.

 

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Some reassuring reading during these strange times…

At Oliver Asset Management we are continuing to make every effort to phone as many of our clients and contacts as possible to offer some reassurance, a sounding board for you to air your frustrations or even sometimes to discuss what potential opportunities the current market brings (without trying to be market timers!)

However it also helps to relay messages from other firms and financial institutions.

I will be updating the website on a regular basis with insightful articles which will add more context to our discussions and encourage people not to panic and make rash decisions.

Todays article comes courtesy of “The Evidence Based Investor”

Waiting for dawn

As always we are available whenever you want to have a chat, or get out your frustrations with the current predicament.  Please don’t hesitate to give us a call.

In the meantime we hope you and your families remain healthy

Jonathan

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Dear valued clients and customers of Oliver Asset Management

The situation in relation to the spread of Coronavirus is rapidly evolving.  We at Oliver Asset Management are aware that there is already likely to be an impact on your personal and professional lives.

I would like to let you know that we are always available to have a chat and offer some reassurance through this unprecedented time.

We have taken the decision to temporarily close the office and have initiated a business continuity plan of working from home for the time being, until we are advised to return to communal areas.

We have ways in which we are able to continue to offer services to the standard that you expect ,be it through the phone, or video conferencing via Skype or Zoom.

You can contact any of us on the office number which is diverted, or our mobiles below

Jonathan 07917 114 727

Roland 07870 185 726

You can also reach us on our usual email addresses.

jonathan@oliverassetmgmt.co.uk

roland@oliverassetmgmt.co.uk

nikki@oliverassetmgmt.co.uk

Roland, Jonathan and Nikki

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12th March 2020 – Market Volatility Concerns

Yesterday was very eventful, with the early morning news that the BOE reduced the base rate to 0.25%, accompanied by market volatility and afternoon budget announcements.

Overnight, the news from Trump to stop travel from the Schengen European countries to, and from America helped lead to further volatility and the FTSE, opening another 5% down, and at the time of writing is down 9%.

Given these exceptional circumstances, we thought at this time it would be prudent to communicate our thoughts.

Our belief is that long term investing is designed to tolerate short term volatility both up and down, and this is backed up by long term equity returns data.  Making knee jerk reactions at times like these often leads to a poorer investment experience.

Nevertheless, with the current news being dominated by headlines about the coronavirus and stock market falls, we fully understand any nervousness about the impact in the short-term on your investment portfolios.

It’s worth considering in the first instance as to when you might need your money; do you need it all right now or does it need to last you say, for the next thirty years?

It might also worthwhile to consider actual performance of a balanced portfolio over a range of periods to demonstrate how the effects of one year’s performance are diminished.

We have published data on the performance of all our portfolios on our website and we ask you to consider the best and worst numbers over the longer periods and you will see despite some short term volatility, the longer term averaged returns have tolerated those short term losses.

Performance

Performance Summary Statistics: 01/06/2009 – 31/01/2020

Date as of January 31st 2020.

Performance data shown represents past performance and is not a guarantee of future results.  Current performance may be higher or lower than the performance shown.

 

The attached article from Dimensional was written 2 weeks ago as the markets were in the early stages of reacting to the coronavirus reaching the wider world.  Whilst things have moved on in terms of volatility, the message still remains strong and relevant.

https://eu.dimensional.com/en/perspectives/the-coronavirus-and-market-declines

If you have any questions or would like to chat through your thoughts or concerns please do not hesitate to get in contact with us.

 

Roland, Jonathan and Nikki.

 

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Coronavirus, and its impact on the markets

Its impossible to ignore the news surrounding the Coronovirus and its impact on a personal level, as well as the markets.

We have seen the FTSE in the UK face its largest weekly decline since the financial crisis, and Mark Carney has warned that the coronavirus outbreak could lead to a downgrade of the UK’s economic growth prospects.

Whilst we must be thoughtful of those impacted by the virus, we need to take stock and think about how we as long term investors must not make knee jerk reactions to negative news.

The following article from Dimensional gives good insight into the reasons for the current uncertainty, and also reasons to not let it consume your thoughts in regards to your own financial plan.

https://us.dimensional.com/perspectives/the-coronavirus-and-market-declines

If you have any questions or concerns please do get in contact

Jonathan

 

 

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Evidence Based Investing – Drowning out the Noise!!

In this blog I want to give you a quick overview of our investment beliefs at Oliver Asset Management, namely Evidence Based Investing.

Who are evidence based investors?

You may well have heard us mention Dimensional Fund Advisers in the past, but probably will not have seen them mentioned anywhere else.

They are the worlds 8th largest fund management company.  They don’t advertise (helping to keep costs low) and they manage and offer research exclusively to institutional investors and a select group of fee based advisers (including us at Oliver Asset Management).

What is evidence based investing?

Evidence based investing is based on a belief in the efficiency of the markets, and that the market is an effective information-processing machine.

Rather than attempting to predict the future or outguess others, information is drawn about expected returns from the market itself—using the collective knowledge of its millions of buyers and sellers as they set prices of shares.

By trusting markets to do what they do best—namely drive information into prices—Dimensional Fund Adviser’s time can be freed up to where they believe they have an advantage,  which is how they interpret their research. They take a less subjective, more systematic approach to investing—an approach they can implement consistently, and investors can understand and stick with, even when the markets seem challenging.

How do we use evidence based investing?

By using Dimensional research principals in conjunction with our investment partners, we are able to utilise low cost globally diversified portfolio’s with strong track records.

We stick to our principals in helping to educate and drown out the external noise from fund houses who claim to have the next big idea.  This in turn frees up our time to focus on what brings you value, like planning out and visualising your future, using our sophisticated cash flow modelling software.

Why use evidence based investing?

The reasons we believe in evidence based investing are numerous, and too long to fully implement into this blog, but in short….

Evidence tells us that trying to outguess and trying to time the market does not work in the long term, and selecting funds based on past performance is extremely unlikely to continually succeed.

Daily news sells on fear which can in turn challenge your investment discipline.  For example fear of a market crash, or fear of missing out on the next big idea.

By avoiding market timing and chasing the next expensive “star” fund manager, diversifying globally, taking control of costs and turnover, and tuning out the noise we can focus together on actions that will add value to your financial plan.

For more information please follow the link:

https://eu.dimensional.com/en/perspectives/key-questions-for-the-long-term-investor

Where can you access evidence based investing?

Get in touch, or pop into our office for a coffee and we can chat through our thoughts with you.

 

Jonathan Beaton

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Client Centred Financial Planning using Cash Flow Modelling

Cash flow modelling, we believe, is the integral part of any serious client centred financial planning process.

Taking into account your income, expenditure, assets, liabilities plus future planned spending or windfalls etc, we can build a visualisation of your financial future.

The initial model leads to an in-depth conversation about what is really important to you and your family’s long-term financial plans and aspirations.

This could be whether or not you are on course for that early retirement you have been striving for, or goals within your working life, a dream holiday home, funding a wedding or your children’s or grandchildren’s education.

Cash flow modelling allows us to see how achievable your ambitions are, and if so, what actions may need to be taken to make sure you are making the most of your potential.

They also help us to understand if you are able to continue to live a good life in retirement, without running out of money or even potentially dying with too much money, leaving your estate with a possible inheritance tax issue to solve.

The next step, is then to put in place actions to make the most tax efficient effective use of your money, build confidence in your plans, and also solidify our relationship as your trusted source of advice.

The most important part of the financial planning cash flow modelling process however, is the ongoing review.

What makes it work as an invaluable tool is revisiting the model, and re-evaluating your position on a regular basis.

Regular reviews will ensure that the course of any financial plan is maintained and is able to be followed, and amended to take into account any changes in your life.

Whether your investments have increased or reduced in value since the previous year, it’s the impact on your long-term planning that we need to consider.  Annually reviewing your model helps avoid making snap investment decisions that could seriously damage long-term investment returns.

Our service is not about a single transaction.

We aim to become your trusted adviser for the long term.

By really understanding what you want to achieve with your money, for you and your families’ future, we believe we can provide the long-term advice that adds value.

Get in touch, come into our office and let us show you how we can help you by building a visual profile of your financial future.

Jonathan Beaton

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Welcome to our new Website!

I’m delighted to introduce the latest version of our website – our 4th or 5th iteration if I remember correctly.

We’ve had great help from Rachael at Clooti and Bill at Wing Design in bringing this to life. They’ve be instrumental in helping us get the correct message about what we do across and how this has evolved over the last 12+ years. The journey has quite fascinating.

The aim of the business was always to provide the best financial guidance and planning that we could, but in the early days we were in a product-sales led rather than advice led environment.

We had a strong belief and conviction that there was a better way to provide a better experience and outcomes for our clients and that has led us to the approach we take today.

The tools, support, processes and systems were admittedly there, but you had to go digging to find them and work hard to implement them in the business process, but the feedback we were getting about what we doing for clients, convinced us it was the right thing to do.

It’s reassuring to see how many other financial planning firms now adopt a similar approach to us and have a client service ethos at the heart of their businesses.

Our new website reflects the distillation of what we’ve tried to do since the business started, and we aim to provide as much information and education on financial matters, regulations and taxation along with the latest thinking on smart investing as we can.

We hope that you find the new website a true reflection of what we are about as a business. We’d be delighted to hear any comments that you have and any ideas of items or ideas you’d like to see more of.

Roland Oliver
May 2019

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